I worked in Radio for 20 years, from 1987 to 2007. During that time, I learned a lot of little tricks about how things really work, and have gotten a good nose for smelling bullshit (especially because like everyone else in the business I’ve helped spread my share).
Lately there’s been a lot of talk about the strength and alleged popularity of Rush Limbaugh, and how he’s using them to keep the Republican party in lockstep to his vision of the world.
The most commonly thrown around number (even though there’s no factual evidence to back it up, as pointed out by MSNBC) is 20 million listeners. Never mind the fact that the “20 million” number came from Rush at his peak, not necessarily today, we’ll take that number as read.
Yes, it’s bullshit. You know it’s bullshit. But as someone from outside the business, do you realize just how much bullshit it is? The answer might surprise you. Here’s how, I can guarantee you, that number was arrived at:
Radio counts listeners in quarter hour increments. There are two ways of measuring them: “cume” and “average quarter hours” (AQH). They’re just what they sound like: total number of quarter-hours listened and average listeners in a quarter hour.
The numbers put out by people like Rush are weekly cume. The trick with cume is that if you listen for 15 minutes, you’re one listener. Listen for a half hour, you’re two. The full hour, four, and so on.
If most of Rush’s listeners join his show at the top and listen to all three hours, each of those people counts as 12 listeners every day. If they listen all week long, then each of those people counts as 60 listeners.
See how quickly numbers get inflated?
Even without factoring in “Best of Rush” and weekend/overnight replays, the real number of people actually listening to Rush (if you buy his 20 million argument, which was at his PEAK, not necessarily now) is closer to 350,000 to half a million people. Out of a country of 350 million.
In other words, only one tenth of one percent of the population of the United States listens to Rush Limbaugh.
And that one tenth of one percent is controlling the policy of the Republican Party.
Think about it.
Wow… that number is incendiary!
1) 911 was done by only 19 people.
2) 500,000 can cause many problems, and they do.
3) And I doubt the number is that small.
4) Listeners talk, and others simply believe.
20 million / 60 is 333,000.
60 assumes 3 hr/day and 5 day/week listeners.
Most listeners are 1 hr or less at lunchtime.
So the number is very likely much bigger than 333,000.
Lets say 2,500,000, because few listen daily.
Of our 350 million people, 250 million ‘care’.
100 million are kids or ‘simply do not care’.
So his direct listenage is 1% or more.
And they talk to 10 people each perhaps.
So how many (indirectly) hear his spewage?
25 million, or 10% of 250,000,000 perhaps?
Which is 20% of the ‘republican party’.
This assumes 50/50 split with 250 million who care.
But many who care are independents or other.
So what is Limbaugh’s influence on Republicans?
Directly maybe 5%, but indrectly, perhaps 10 times that.
I often get emails about ‘limbaugh spewage’ that has been
forwarded several times, and I certainly don’t ask for them.
So his word does reach the multitudes.
And the multitudes hear.
And the multitudes weep.
And the multitudes suffer.
For the Limbaugh is a creep.